11 May 2016

A Disturbing Prediction - Democracy Can Lead To Human Extinction

I was impressed by a paper from 2010 called 'A Mathematical Model of Democratic Elections' by Nagel.
The research uses a population bell curve to predict that the 'majority' in any given population will consistently elect candidates that are unable to act in the best interests of that population. It's a quietly radically concept that goes a long way to describing why human populations elect 'leaders' that get them into ridiculous wars, send their countries bankrupt, and sometimes actually destroy many of the people who elected them. I'm thinking Hitler here, who was 'popularly elected' and achieved the deaths of millions of people. And he's not the only one!
Australia is an incredibly wealthy continent-state that actually managed to go bankrupt during it's greatest ever 'mining boom'. A boom initiated by a massive foreign regime that upholds the exact opposite of everything Australia stands for. So we went into debt during the good times supporting a regime that upholds 'communism' while we practice 'capitalism'. It's obvious we reached this point because of incredibly stupid leadership, but incredibly stupid leadership is the norm according to Nagel. If you accept Nagel's premise, then it can be predicted that a society voting for democratically elected 'leaders' will continue to disintegrate and unravel over time. The resulting entropy will drag the voters into that disintegrating system and could potentially destroy them.

It appears democratic systems often devolve down to an equilibrium of 2 competing parties. In Australia we oscillate from one party promising to repair the debt and damage caused by the last party we chose. The parties can only blame each other and not the voters who they are forced to support. This inbuilt ineptitude would compound over time.
As a result, our society becomes distorted and attenuated with ever more bizarre regulations defining every nuance of our lives. Regulations that are often only reactions to past political blunders. Today we see 'negative gearing' and minute changes in interest rates, issues that only mean something to a society hopelessly in debt and economically undermined by its democratically chosen leaders. Taxes are spent on populist vote harvesters like sporting facilities rather than real infrastructure.
My theory appears to be a logical consequence of Nagel's model of democratic elections.

© The prediction that a democracy will eventually self-destruct due to an inherent weakness of being unable to elect competent leaders is copyright by Karl Stevens May 11, 2016.

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